Week 6 NFL forecast

In an effort to thwart and confuse my rivals in the old NFL pool, I spend pretty much all day Tuesday compiling why every team in the league is going to win.  Here are my thoughts on the upcoming week, which I will probably post every week here instead of writing a huge e-mail:

Take the Bills:  Yes, these teams are both winless but they are still miles apart.  The Bills have played just well enough to lose heartbreaker after hearbreaker.  Their offense came alive against the Jets and they almost pulled it out in the Meadowlands.  This will be the week they finally break into the win column and start heading in the right direction.  The Bills simply have more talent and that's what you have to go by here.

Take the Dolphins:  This is going to be one butt-ugly game.  Two of the worst offenses in the league squaring off against two of the better defenses.  Judging by defense, the Dolphins are in better shape.  They held the Patriots offense to shockingly low numbers and if they had had any kind of offense they could have been competitive in that game.  The Bills D on the other hand is banged up in the secondary and gives up many more big plays- such as the game winner from Byron Leftwich (Week 1) and allowing the Jets into FG range (Week 5).  This game is screaming out a score of 6-3 or 7-6.  If the line comes out with the Dolphins getting points, take those points.  

Take the Jets -10  The 49ers are out of their league here.  They had to make a miracle comeback to defeat historically the worst team ever in the Cards.  Now they travel across the country to take on an undefeated team.  It's asking a lot of them to even cover.  Disregard their lucky home win and look at what happened the last time the Niners got on an airplane- they lost 34-0.

Take the 49ers +10  The schedule tells the story here.  The Patriots are waiting for the Jets next week in what could be a battle of undefeateds for first place in the division.  Ask the Seahawks what happens when you just can't wait to play the champs.  This is the LETDOWN I promised about the Jets last week.   TRAP GAME ALERT!!!    

Take the Patriots -4  This team just broke the record for consecutive wins.  I shouldn't even have to give you reasons to bet ON them.  But the fact is that the Seahawks proved they are not ready to be an elite team by blowing a 27-10 lead in a division game at home where they had won the past 10.  Contrast that with the Patriots playing a division game at home and leading 24-10, allowing the Dolphins inside the 10 twice and turning them away twice.  The Pats are the better team here because they are always the better team.

Take the Seahawks +4   The Seahawks want this one so bad they overlooked their biggest rival in their own division.  17 fourth quarter points and an OT loss later, and suddenly the bandwagon wheels are coming off for Seattle.  That is exactly why you should take them.  In a "what have you done for me lately" league, people are jumping all over that disastrous collapse and forgetting that the Seahawks only allowed 13 points total in their first 3 games.  They have already gone on the road twice and walked away winners.  This is the one they have circled on their calendars.  New England has not played a good team since Week 1 (combined record of last 3 opponents 1-13).  Seattle will give them all they can handle.    

Take the Eagles -7.5   Two quick and key things here:  1) Since last season the Eagles have gotten better on offense and the Panthers have gotten worse on defense.  2) The Eagles lost the NFC title game to the Panthers at home last year.  This is the classic REVENGE game. 

Take the Panthers +7.5  The Panthers may be in bad shape at 1-3 but I actually can come up with some reasons to take them 1) they have played well on the road- they beat KC and they were a ridiculously foolish penalty away from tying Denver.  2) They should finally get Stephen Davis back this week, immensely improving the run game which Philly is notoriously weak against.  3) The Eagles could come out flat off the bye week.  They were rolling along and sometimes that interruption is the worst thing that can happen (again look at the Seahawks)  

Take the Browns -2.5  I mentioned it last week and I think it will hold true again.  The Browns are undefeated at home and winless on the road.  They're home this week so take them, especially against a weak Bengals team coming off a bye.

Take the Bengals +2.5  Throw out the records when two rivals clash.  The Browns are injury riddled and the Bengals are better than them on paper anyway.  This is also a potential revenge game, since it was a loss to the Browns last season that cost the upstart Bengals a chance at the division crown.     Take the Lions -1.5  Some things come into focus by the time you hit the middle of October and one of them is this:  The Lions are up and the Packers are down.  Plus, it is pretty well documented how poorly Brett Favre plays in domes.  The worse the Pack does, the more Brett wants to play Superman.  He throws wild passes and forces things into coverage.  It is going to be a long season for that team.  And by long season I mean they are going to lose a lot.

Take the Packers +1.5  Brett Favre has also been known to impose his will on games and now at 1-4 he definitely has that back against the wall kind of feeling.  Everyone has written the Packers off already and they might have something to say about that.  The Lions are a nice story, but it's hard to see them as a good team just yet.  Vegas might be getting ahead of themselves installing Detroit as a favorite over the defending division champs.  

Take the Redskins -1  How much worse can it get for Washington?  Done in by turnovers yet again.  The good news is the pressure is off now- everyone is resigned to the fact that Gibbs is going to struggle this year.  They won't have a raucous Skins crowd to get on their backs when they screw up.  In essence, they have nothing to lose.  A bad Bears team might be just what the doctor ordered to help Washington get back on track.  The Skins defense has played well and the Bears (again) have no offense.

Take the Bears +1  The Bears must be salivating at the chance to play a turnover prone offense.  They have one of the most oppurtunistic defenses around, even with some of their  playmakers hurt.  Coach Lovie Smith got a league high 48 turnovers out of his Rams D last season (this year the Rams have 2,on pace for 8) so you can bet he knows how to get his defensive players to the ball.  The trends I've laid out say it's a close game blown open by a critical Redskins mistake.    

Take the Titans -6.5  What a difference McNair makes.  A blowout loss in San Diego without him and a blowout win with him in Green Bay.  Now they finally come home where they are surprisingly winless.  That will change when the Texans come to town.  The Titans just got a season saving win and looked like a team ready to turn things around.  They have already lost two division games on their own turf and this is their last chance to take one.  Every season the Titans reach a point where it looks like they will finally take that step back and then they surge forward.  That surge began Monday and continues here.  Expect Tennessee to roll.

Take the Texans +6.5  I said it before and I will say it again- the Texans are not doormats anymore.  They were down 21-0 to arguably the league's best offense in the Vikings and they were able to come back and force overtime.  They proved they can hang with anybody and just might catch the Titans off guard here.  Both teams have played mostly close games, 6 and a half points might come in handy.    

Take the Falcons -5.5   The Falcons know they didn't play well last week and were still in the game.  That has to give them confidence.  Four turnovers will not happen every week and I'm sure they will pay extra attention this week to protecting the ball.  Michael Vick is always the most dangerous player on the field and reading all the press about how he is struggling might finally force the coaches to let the man do his thing out there- the "Experience"

Take the Chargers +5.5  The Falcons have not yet covered at home and are playing another game they "should win."  Vick is struggling in his new offense and the Falcons are lucky to have the record they have.  The Chargers are quietly the second highest scoring team in the league and it's a good bet that they can put up enough points to, if not win, at least cover against a team that doesn't score much.    

Take theChiefs -1.5  In their quest to rebound from the bad start, the Jags could notcome at a better time for the Chiefs.  Two weeks ago, it looked like the Chiefs could potentially start 0-5, instead they got a big win in Baltimore and now head into Jacksonville, who all of a sudden don't look as good as they did before.  (The normally strong defense gave up a hundred yards to a no-name Charger last week)  Now with their shaken confidence, the Jags D is asked to stop Priest Holmes.  Chiefs are on an upswing, Jags on a downswing- it's that simple.

Take the Jaguars +1.5  Just like the Seahawks, the Jags have had to watch their bandwagon crash and burn this week.  The defense has had its pride hurt and will be ready to avenge their loss by hitting anything that moves.  The Chiefs built some momentum by winning on Monday two weeks ago but as I said above, there is no bigger momentum killer than the bye.  Road game, bye, road game is a tough combination to overcome and the Chiefs have proven that they are not a good enough team this year to deal with it.    

Take the Cowboys -3  The Cowboys had to be encouraged that they finally got a run game going last week, the problem was they forgot to pass.  This game is so important for them- they can't lose another home game in a division that is slowly slipping away with the Giants and Eagles having such stellar records.  The defense is aware of what former Eagle Duce Staley can do and will be prepared to make the Steelers' rookie quarterback beat them.

Take the Steelers +3  Steelers 4-1, Cowboys 2-2 and the 4-1 team is the underdog?  Come on!  What have the Cowboys done to deserve being a favorite over a winning team- they got blown away by the Vikings and Giants and barely beat the Browns and Redskins.  This Vegas line is a joke.  Take the Steelers to win outright just because the Cowboys are so bad this year.     

Take the Broncos -1.5  It's almost comical how the Broncos really can insert anyone into the RB spot and be able to run the ball.  The guy forced into RB action last week is a backup fullback and he almost got 200 yards.  The Broncos always get up for their arch rivals and with a chance to almost put the division away so early, you know they will pounce all over a suddenly struggling Raiders team. 

Take the Raiders +1.5  The Raiders held true to form last week- win at home, lose on the road.  They're home this week and it could not come at a better time.  Kerry Collins struggled massively in Houston and Indianapolis, but he played so well in his only game at Oakland that he made a lot of people not too upset that Rich Gannon was lost.  Even though they've been winning, the Broncos have struggled on the road with a close loss in Jacksonville and a close win in Tampa.  Not exactly hostile environments- the Raiders crazy fans might help their team get past a tough division opponent.    

Take the Vikings -3.5  The Vikings are hot right now and it's all about the passing game.  Meanwhile, the Saints have given teams their first win in consecutive weeks.  If they can't beat the bad teams, how can they possibly expect to keep up with the Vikings?

Take the Saints +3.5  The Saints are one of those teams that play to the level of their competition.  As easy as it was to predict their struggles with the bad teams, it is just as easy to predict that they will play well against a good team.  It would not shock me at all if the Saints won.  The Vikings are not that great on the road, getting killed by the Eagles and almost blowing it against the Texans.    

Take the Rams -7  The Rams made a statement against Seattle that they are still a force to be reckoned with.  The offense exploded for 17 points in five minutes to force overtime.  If the Seahawks lose to New England on Sunday, which is very possible, the Rams should come out ready to explode again on a bad Bucs team since they would have the oppurtunity to take the lead in the division.

Take the Bucs +7  Scores of Bucs games this season: L 16-10, L 10-6, L 30-20, L 16-13,  W 20-17.   If you could take them +7 every week, you would have a pretty good thing going.  The Rams may have exploded last week, but that was against a good team caught off guard.  The Bucs are much more physical than the Rams are used to- when the Rams get hit in the mouth by physical teams, they fold pretty quickly.