Officially I am a beyond horrible 44-55 this season, but doing this makes me feel like I have all the answers. I am always right and always wrong and knowing this brings me comfort. My AOL almost timed itself out when I changed radio stations, so if my analyses are really quick this week, it's because I'm trying to get them all in before the computer goes down and I lose what is usually my longest post of the week. On to the games:
Take the Packers -2.5 Since Coach Mike Sherman took over playcalling duties- an old Jim Fassel trick!- the Pack has scored 79 points in two games. I'm not just saying the Pack is back because it rhymes, I'm saying it because it's true.
Take the Redskins +2.5 I am still not sold on this Packer defense- look how badly they've been run on in some of their games. All Gibbs does is run and max protect the QB so much that they only have two passing patterns per play sometimes. The DC crowd will be very raucous coming up on election day and that atmosphere certainly helped the Skins to a Week 1 win. It could do it again here considering the political ramifications...if you haven't heard, a Skins victory before Election Day means re-election, an opponent victory means defeat for the president. Without fail! For once I will be rooting for Washington...
Take the Eagles -7.5 The Eagles got a wake-up call by almost blowing the game in Cleveland- it's an indication of how good they are that even when they don't bring their A game, they can still pull games out. The Ravens defense might be good, but T.O and McNabb have been monsters this year. They will score and the Baltimore offense will not be able to keep up.
Take the Ravens +7.5 The Ravens defense thrives on challenges and Owens certainly presents one- expect them to be ready. The Browns proved what we kind of already knew- you can run the ball against the Eagles. They might not have Jamal Lewis, but the Ravens still employ a run-heavy playbook. I expect some guy I've never heard of to torch the Eagles D- that's the way the NFL happens sometimes.
Take the Bills -3 I think this game comes late enough in the season that weather could be a factor. It's already looked like it could snow a few times here in upstate NY. Sure, the Cards played well on the road in domed stadiums (Atlanta, St. Louis) but those desert boys are in for a shock when they have to come up and play in real football weather. It's hard to believe the Bills are 1-5...they're really not that bad. Honest.
Take the Cardinals +3 I think it's pretty obvious that the Cards' new coaching is working out while the Bills' isn't. That's what happens when you hire somone as a vendetta against Pittsburgh instead of someone qualified. I'm sure Mr. Mularkey is a very nice man, but how do you get a head coaching job as the Offensive Coordinator of a losing team? Notice now that the Steelers have abandoned the crazy formation passing game and gone back to running, they're winning again. Meanwhile, the Bills offense is the worst I have ever seen.
Take the Vikings -7 Culpepper proved that he can handle the job of carrying the team last week with Moss out. They didn't score big, but he still made plays and they still won. Now with Moss back, they should crank things up again. The Giants got exposed a little last week- the defense had better wake up this week. If they made Harrington look like an MVP, what are they going to do for an actual MVP candidate?
Take the Giants +7 Good or bad, the Giants have matched up well against the Vikings. They have a lot of skill players that the weak Vikings D can't handle. Tiki Barber is having an MVP like season of his own (though I think they'll never give it to a RB over a qualified QB). If this turns into a shoot-out, the Giants could easily cover...especially when Moss gets upgraded during the week and the Vegas line shoots up.
Take the Titans -3.5 This line surprised me- a team free-falling favored over a team that just got a huge victory? That's how much Vegas likes the home team sometimes. It might be valid here- the Titans are well-coached and now that they know they won't have McNair, they can actually gameplan for Volek to be their QB. Things always work out better when you're more prepared. I also give you Exhibit A from the short week file- the St. Louis Rams. Called by me last week (because I call everything), the Rams could not handle a short week followed by a plane trip. They're a good team- imagine what this scenario will do for a bad team.
Take the Bengals +3.5 How many times do the Titans have to lose before they get taken off the Good Team Pedestal Las Vegas relies on so heavily? These two teams are passing each other on the elevator. Take the team that's on the way up.
Take the Colts -1.5 I think the Colts will get up for this one- they will want to prove that they are the elite offense in the NFL. They certainly proved it in the playoffs. Manning's ability to audible will not be affected by the crowd because he does it all the time and his line knows what to do. In a game with no defense, you have to take the team with the better offense, and it's Indy.
Take the Chiefs +1.5 The Chiefs sent out a second notice last week that they are not dead yet. Now they don't have a bye week to kill the buzz this time. Eight rushing TDs in one game was a record and if the line plays that well again, they might just keep the ball out of Manning's hands long enough to let the potent KC offense get their revenge.
Take the Cowboys -3 This is the Cowboys' last stand. If they don't get well here, the season will be all but over. Parcells admitted he was at his lowest point...well, there's only one way to go but up. I think his players, who love him, will get this one at home for him.
Take the Lions +3 Another example of how set in their ways Vegas is... they love the Cowboys. What exactly does Detroit have to do to get some respect? Be more undefeated on the road? They have waltzed into Atlanta and the Meadowlands and handed two good teams their first home loss. Mooch has made believers out of them and they will beat this suddenly bad Cowboys team.
Take the Texans -1 Speaking of believing in yourself, the Texans are getting there too. They have enough victories over quality teams that at some point we have to stop being surprised. They are turning that new stadium into their own and starting to develop a home-field advantage. This is a suddenly important division game and the nod goes to the home team for most of those.
Take the Jaguars +1 If the Lions are getting no respect, I can't even print what's being done to the Jags. They are in first place! They just knocked off the best offense in the league. Their reward for being 5-2 is to not even be favored against an up and down 3-3 expansion team. The Jags have won enough close games that it can't be a fluke anymore.
Take the Broncos -6.5 Vegas loves their Broncos too. They just got creamed by the Bengals of all teams on national TV...better keep that line under a TD then, right Vegas? It's becoming a theme this week, but I just can't get over some of these lines. Anyway, I see why they did it... the Broncos are home and the Falcons just lost 56-10. And they did it by giving up a record 8 rushing TDs. And what do the Broncos do a lot of? Okay, I'll bite and I apologize Las Vegas.
Take the Falcons +6.5 Last week aside, the Falcons defense is good. You can bet they will be hungry for redemption. That's what I give you for the Falcons this week: Redemption.
Take the Seahawks -8 Finally the nightmare ends for Seattle. One letdown loss and two tough road games later and everyone is down on them all of a sudden. Fortunately, the Panthers are in worse shape. Seahawks get well here and remind everyone why they were Super Bowl contenders.
Take the Panthers +8 It's hard to come up with reasons to like the Cats in this one, but that might be a reason in itself. I made jokes about Cleveland and Cincy last week and they both covered. You just never know what's going to happen in the NFL. After the Monday night Cincy game, I'm ready to use that as a valid reason for picking a team. Take the Panthers because you never know.
Take the Patriots -3 Sure, I could say it's a team that has won 21 in a row and now is gameplanning for a rookie QB. I could say a lot of reasons, but at this point all I have to say is: Never bet against the Patriots.
Take the Steelers +3 I'm not going to make too big a deal about Bettis saying he wanted to be the one to break the streak. I'm sure every team the Pats have played wanted that. But I do like the fact that all these long streaks have historically ended on the road. I think the Steelers are a good enough team to get it done. The Patriots haven't had a killer road game for this entire streak.
Take the Chargers -5.5 Finally one of the upstarts gets some respect from Vegas, though I think it's equally a condemnation of the Raiders. They are beyond awful. I'll use the elevator analogy again. Chargers- up, Raiders- down.
Take the Raiders +5.5 I can understand the Raiders being underdogs, but 5.5 is a lot. This is the Chargers we're talking about. By midseason, some of these upstarts stop sneaking up on people and fall back down to the pack. Of the upstart bunch, I think San Diego is the best candidate for this reasoning.
Take the Bears -2.5 I don't expect you to take me seriously when I start an item with "Take the Bears." Rim shot, please. There. I just did my part to make the Bears a sure fire winner this week.
Take the 49ers +2.5 You know, I have vague childhood memories of being at a Christmas party where the Bears and Niners were playing a very important late season contest. My how times change. Since I gave no real reason to take the Bears, I can't tip the scales for San Fran by giving you my insight on them. Sorry. E-mail me if you care that much! I highly doubt anyone would admit to caring about the 49ers right now.
Take the Jets -7 The Jets are going to make the playoffs on schedule alone. I can't remember anything like this before. They failed their one big test in New England, but who cares? As long as they have more patsies than pats on tap, they will roll to 10 or 11 or 12 wins. They also have the Dolphins number, don't forget that.
Take the Dolphins +7 A-ha! All this time the Dolphins were playing opossum. They are really capable of laying 31 on anyone, they just didn't want to. Now that they are finally back, they should be able to dispatch the Jets with ease. Seriously, if the Red Sox can come back from 3-0 and beat the Yankees, anything can happen...10-6 Miami anyone?
Well, that's it. I feel good- almost like I'm going to be both right and wrong about everything. :-)
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